5 electric vehicle predictions for 2011 by PluginCars.com

PluginCars.com's John Gartner is not alone when he says that 2011 will be the year of the revenge of the electric car, but he reveals some interesting key trends identified by Pike Research in this white paper. Some can be summarized in these 5 electric vehicle predictions for 2011. Having worked in the media industry, I cannot help myself but laugh at #5. So true.

1 - The majority of people who drive a plug-in vehicle won't own it. Thanks to car rental fleets, taxis, and car share programs, getting people into plug-in vehicles will be more influential in the long run than getting them to sign on the dotted line.


2 - Automakers will get push back from EV owners about how long it takes vehicles to fully charge. Most vehicle charging will be done overnight, enabling owners to wake up to a fully charged battery without concern for the rate at which it was charged. But because automakers decided to take the cautious (and less expensive) approach of installing onboard charging equipment that provides a maximum of 3.3 kW to the batteries, a full charge will take longer than necessary leaving some consumers feeling like they overpaid for charging equipment.


3 - The most popular selling EVs won't have four wheels. Electric two-wheeled vehicles, including bicycles, scooters and motorcycles are a huge global market that will continue to overshadow electric passenger vehicles for the foreseeable future. China is by far the largest market, with more than 48 million sales projected. In North America, the sale of two-wheeled EVs will outnumber passenger PEVs by approximately 8:1 in 2011, but the gap will be narrowed to close to 2 to 1 by 2015 as passenger vehicles sales will grow much more quickly.


4 - Many EV charging stations will spend the majority of their time idle. The strategy of installing a network of charging equipment may be good psychologically for EV owners and the automakers, but the business benefit for the owners of charging equipment will be lacking during the early days of EV sales. During 2011 and 2012 there will not be sufficient penetration of EVs for charging spots to see many visits–if any—per day.


5 - Somebody somewhere will have a bad EV experience and the media will overreact. The first time a driver is left "stranded" by running out of charge will be cause célèbre for the doubters to highlight the superiority of gas cars. The potential also exists for EV owner frustration if the promised all-electric driving range advertised is not realized. Heavy-footed drivers and trips taken in extreme weather will substantially cut into driving efficiency, but that should not be a surprise or especially noteworthy.

Read more of it and get the white paper at PluginCars.com

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China's BYD to roll out electric vehicles at Detroit auto show

Tweet this post  From the Detroit News: BYD Co. Ltd., one of the most widely-watched of China's emerging automakers, plans to unveil two advanced technology vehicles at the Detroit auto show next month: an all-electric 2012 e6 crossover, and a S6DM hybrid.

BYD, a battery-maker that branched out into the auto business, said today that it also will display solar panels, home energy storage units and other environmentally friendly products and technologies in an exhibit titled "Green City Solutions."

BYD, which counts U.S. billionaire Warren Buffet among its investors, is one of China's most closely observed automakers because of its battery expertise. The company plans to export vehicles to the United States in the near future.

The BYD e6Premier, equipped with an iron-phosphate "FE" battery, has a 186-mile range on city roads and a top speed of 87 miles per hour. It takes 40 minutes to fully charge the e6 using a 100-kilowatt fast-charger and six hours on a standard outlet.

BYD's S6DM SUV can travel 38 miles on electric power alone and more than 310 miles when engaging a 2-litre gas engine. A 10-kilowatt electric motor is paired with a six-speed dual-clutch transmission propelling the front wheels, while a powerful 75-kilowatt electric motor powers the rear wheels.

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Beijing to cut new cars by two-thirds to battle traffic

From the BBC/Reuters: New rules have taken effect in China that restrict car purchases in an effort to combat serious traffic problems in the capital, Beijing.

City authorities will allow only 240,000 vehicles to be registered for 2011 - one-third of this year's total.

Car buyers have been swamping dealers in anticipation of the new rules, which will still leave about five million cars on the road in the capital.

Traffic and air pollution in Beijing is among the worst in the world.

Beijing officials are trying to balance the desire of a growing middle class to have the convenience and status of car ownership, with a huge congestion problem.

Officials said the new rules would not solve the full extent of the city's problems, only slow the down the rate at which they are worsening.

"It will be difficult to dramatically improve the traffic situation in a short time," said Liu Xiaoming, deputy director of the Beijing Traffic Management Bureau.

"But it can slow down the pace of worsening traffic congestion."

Car registrations will be allocated by a license plate lottery system from Friday.

Under the new rules, government departments will not be allowed to increase the size of their fleets for five years.

About 750,000 new cars appeared on Beijing's streets this year, raising the total of registered vehicles for the city 4.8m.

China overtook the US as the world's biggest car and van market in 2009, with 13.6 million vehicles sold within the country.

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GM China unveils electric concept Sail

Tweet this post From the International Business Times: General Motors China introduced an electric concept vehicle Sail at the 2010 Guangzhou Auto Show on Tuesday. Under the theme of "Drive to Green and Leading Innovation," it is showcasing 23 production and concept vehicles. Among the products on display are the Sail electric concept vehicle, which is making its global debut, and the Chevrolet Volt extended-range electric vehicle, the car maker said.

The Sail electric concept vehicle is powered by a lithium-ion battery with maximum output of 65 kW and maximum torque of 220 Nm. It has a maximum speed of 130 km/h and can go up to 150 kilometers on a single electric charge. It uses regenerative braking to produce additional energy.

"GM is committed to delivering a range of advanced propulsion technologies and offering a portfolio of solutions that will allow our customers to choose the vehicle that best meets their needs," said Kevin Wale, President and Managing Director of the GM China Group. GM's expertise in batteries, electric motors and power controls will enable us to provide the best possible choices when it comes to vehicle electrification technologies, he said.

The Sail electric concept vehicle was developed by Shanghai GM and the Pan Asia Technical Automotive Center (PATAC) in Shanghai, the carmaker said.

Earlier last month, China had said annual production of electric vehicles will hit one million units by 2020 and become world's largest auto market for new energy vehicles, which will hold the key for development of the country's auto industry.

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Honda Eyes China's Electric Car Market

From The Wall Street Journal: The president of Honda Motor Co. said Monday the company is studying the possibility of rolling out electric vehicles in China, making it the latest Japanese car maker to look for potential demand in an untapped slice of the world's largest auto market.

The Japanese car maker is considering initiating a testing program in China for electric vehicles, following similar tests in the U.S. and Japan, the company said in a release.

"The chances are good in China," Takanobu Ito, Honda's president, told reporters after a news conference for an electric-vehicle test program in Saitama Prefecture, north of Tokyo.

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Off-topic: Airlines post record profits in 2010, Air China is the world's biggest airline

IATA'S chief economist Brian Pearce has announced this Tuesday in Geneva, Switzerland, that profit estimates for the airline sector have nearly doubled from the 8,9 billion dollars posted in September to 15,1 billion dollars. Stable oil prices and passenger number growth have brought the sector back from the grave.

2011 could tell a different story, though, especially in Europe, Pearce said. But not in Asia and Latin America, where there's a bright outlook. IATA presented an updated list of the world's biggest airlines in therms of market capitalization, with surprising results. Air China gets the gold (20bn), followed by Singapore Airlines (14bn), Cathay Pacific (12bn), China Southern (11bn) and LATAM (Chile's LAN + Brazil's TAM, 11bn).

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中国新能源汽车整车销售令人失望

新能源汽车在中国的发展已有高度预期，但汽车制造商感到失望与绿色汽车的销售数字后，在该领域花费了数百万美元。

由于其体积滞销，长安汽车表示，其混合动力电动汽车混合动力汽车捷讯已经停产一年。 “该公司没有出售任何“高级行政人员被引述说，关于捷讯戊型肝炎病毒，根据在中国商业新闻在周一的报告。LINK

评论：没有网络在公共收费，财政奖励和政治支持电动车严重引入投资，这是毫无意义的动议这项业务，像中国这样的国家。但我怀疑北京将忽略的EV市场。 2011年将是一个有趣的一年那里。

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新能源汽車銷量在中國汽車製造商感到失望

開發新能源汽車的中國已經高度預期，但汽車製造商失望的綠色汽車銷售數字後，花了數百萬美元在這一領域。

由於其銷量不佳，長安汽車表示，其混合動力汽車混合動力汽車已走出捷訊生產一年。 “該公司沒有出售任何“高級行政人員被引述說，關於捷訊戊型肝炎病毒，據報導，在中國經濟新聞週一。LINK

評論：沒有嚴重引入投資在公共充電網絡，財政獎勵和政治支持電動汽車，它的毫無意義的動議這項業務的國家，比如中國。但我懷疑北京將忽略的EV市場。 2011年將是一個有趣的一年裡。

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航空公司在2010年創紀錄的利潤後，空中中國是世界上最大的航空公司

國際航空運輸協會首席經濟學家布賴恩皮爾斯的宣布本星期二在瑞士日內瓦，即盈利預期為航空業了近一倍，從8,9億美元在九月發布15,1億美元。穩定的石油價格和乘客數量的增長帶來了行業重新從墳墓。

2011年可以說一個不同的故事，雖然，特別是在歐洲，皮爾斯說。但在亞洲和拉丁美洲，那裡有一個光明的前景。國際航空運輸協會提交了一份最新的名單是世界上最大的航空公司撒姆市值，以令人驚訝的結果。中國航空獲取黃金（200億美元），其次是新加坡航空公司（140億美元），國泰航空（120億），中國南方航空（110億美元）和拉美（智利的LAN+巴西的譚耀宗議員，110億美元）。

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航空公司在2010年创纪录的利润后，空中中国是世界上最大的航空公司

国际航空运输协会首席经济学家布赖恩皮尔斯的已宣布在瑞士日内瓦，周二，这对航空业的利润估计有近8,9亿美元的一倍，在九月发布15,1亿美元。稳定的石油价格和乘客数量的增长带来了行业重新从坟墓。

2011年可以说一个不同的故事，虽然特别是在欧洲，皮尔斯说。但在亚洲和拉丁美洲，那里有一个光明的前景。国际航空运输协会提出以市值撒姆一个世界上最大的航空公司最新名单，以令人惊讶的结果。中国航空获取黄金（200亿美元），新加坡航空公司（140亿美元），国泰航空（120亿），中国南方航空（110亿美元）和拉美（智利的LAN+巴西的谭耀宗议员，110亿）之后。

READ MORE - 航空公司在2010年创纪录的利润后，空中中国是世界上最大的航空公司

New energy vehicle sales in China disappoint automakers

From the Global Times: The development of new energy vehicles in China has been highly anticipated, but automakers are disappointed with the sales figures of green cars, after having spent millions of dollars in this field.

Due to its poor sales volume, Changan Auto said that its hybrid vehicle Jiexun HEV has gone out of production for one year. "The company didn't sell any", a senior executive was quoted as saying about the Jiexun HEV, according to a report in the China Business News on Monday.

Comment: Without a serious investiment in public charging networks, fiscal incentives and political support for EVs, it's pointless to move this business to countries like China. But I doubt Beijing is going ignore the EV market. 2011 is going to be an interesting year there.

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